NAS cautions Tumaini 2 risks becoming another cosmetic peace process

A new Kenyan-led peace initiative for South Sudan, known as Tumaini 2, has drawn renewed scrutiny after National Salvation Front (NAS) Chairman Gen. Thomas Cirillo Swaka warned that the process risks repeating past failures by avoiding the root causes of the conflict.

Speaking during an extensive political briefing, the Chairman said the initiative is being presented as a national dialogue intended to produce a National Consensus Charter for Peace and Democracy. The process emerged following a recent visit by a South Sudanese government delegation and subsequent public remarks by Kenyan President William Ruto reaffirming Kenya’s commitment to peace and support for elections in South Sudan.

Cirillo said that while Tumaini 2 is being promoted as a fresh initiative, its framing and early signals suggest continuity with previous processes that collapsed without delivering sustainable peace. He cautioned that rebranding failed approaches without change would not stabilise the country.

According to Cirillo, the Tumaini 2 framework document was shared informally with NAS and its allies within the South Sudan Opposition Movements Alliance (SSOMA) through Kenya’s mediation secretariat.

Lessons from the Collapse of Tumaini

The Chairman revisited NAS’s experience with earlier peace initiatives, including the first Tumaini process, which he said failed because the talks were confined to finding new mechanisms to implement the 2018 Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict (R-ARCSS) in South Sudan.

Cirillo further emphasised that NAS is not a signatory to R-ARCSS agreement and therefore cannot participate in processes designed to repair or extend it. He said NAS had advised mediators to engage directly with the agreement’s signatories in Juba to explain their failure to implement it, rather than attempting to draw in non-signatory groups.

Diplomatic Perceptions

Cirillo said international perceptions of NAS have evolved since 2018, when the movement was labelled a spoiler for refusing to sign the revitalised agreement. He told that diplomats across Africa, Europe, and the United States now increasingly recognise NAS as a nationalist movement with a consistent political position, particularly after repeated peace initiatives collapsed despite international backing.

“In 2018 we were blamed,” Cirillo said. “Today, many of those same actors acknowledge that our position was correct.”

The Chairman added that this shift in perception is a testament to NAS doing the right thing, and that many South Sudanese now look to NAS and other like-minded groups as the remaining forces capable of driving meaningful change. He said this is something members should take pride in.

Escalation After the Collapse of Talks

Following the collapse of the earlier Tumaini process, Cirillo said government forces intensified military operations against opposition groups, including attacks on SPLM-IO cantonment areas, arrests of opposition figures and renewed displacement of civilians. The regime is creating peace initiatives were being used to buy time rather than resolve the conflict.

NAS Reading of Tumaini 2

Cirillo said NAS’s preliminary reading of Tumaini 2 is that the process risks being used to buy time militarily, create cover for elections without reforms, and divert attention from ongoing fighting and the burning of villages in conflict-affected areas. He warned that ceasefire discussions without political restructuring would only enable renewed violence once talks inevitably collapse.

For NAS and its allies in SSOMA, Cirillo said, any credible peace process must begin by confronting the root causes of the conflict, lead to the formation of an inclusive transitional authority, enable the return and resettlement of refugees and internally displaced persons, restore governance and basic services, and create the conditions for a census and a permanent constitution before any elections are held.

What Comes Next

The Chairman and Command-in-Chief said NAS and like-minded groups within SSOMA are continuing internal consultations and coordination with other opposition forces as they assess the Tumaini 2 framework. A formal position will be communicated to the Kenyan mediators.

“For peace to succeed, it must be honest,” Cirillo said. “Anything else simply prolongs the suffering of our people.”

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